Nikon’s first mirrorless flagship was announced late October 2021 and officially launched on December 24 of the same year. There still are people waiting for theirs more than half a year later, and the reception of this much anticipated camera as been rather good overall. It seems Nikon got it right with their initial mirrorless flagship.
What’s new?
A new, much faster processor – Expeed 7 – provides way more speed and the what seems to be a stacked development of the z7’s 45mp sensor comes accompanies it. However, what was really new is that Nikon felt confident enough to omit the mechanical shutter. The much improved electronic viewfinder (EVF) is another result of this combination of speed and omitting the shutter.
Nikon put the lot in a one of their gripped professional bodies, build to last, with a battery that often enables it – depending on circumstances – to shoot several thousand images instead of the rated 740 shots per charge. Even better, they managed to price this package at US$550 – that’s less than its peers from Canon or Sony.
This quite well rounded package was well received and the long waiting lists were no surprise for me. For one we still have to deal with the chip shortage, but then I remember waiting lists even back in the days of the F5. Indeed nothing really new here.
Nikon’s dual stream tech, with two streams, one for the EVF, one foe the sensor. Needs to be shutter-less to work.
Yes, gimme, gimme, gimme…?
Nope, I have no plans getting a z9, as I have moved away from the big professional gripped bodies and fast f2.8 zooms. My camera has to go cycling and walking a lot these days, and a smaller and lighter setup if simply better suited for this purpose. However, the z9 release still was important for my use case as well. Nikon did state not long after that the technology would be applied down the range, as expected.
This means sooner or later there will be an improved body that fits me well. Of course an improved AF system will be welcome, but the improvement I would like to see most is the new EVF. I don’t really need faster frame rates or better burst rates, I rarely use the 9fps and rarely get close to the limit of the buffer as I usually shoot in shorts bursts. Overall, I think the z9 is a step in the right direction for Nikon, even if it’s not for me. It shows where Nikon is headed, and what will come – and yes, what is coming will be good!
Thoughts about the z9 in use
One thing I have observed over the past few months however, is that there seem to be quite some people buying the z9 yet still ending up with pretty bad images as a result. However, looking at those samples, the z9 is not the reason for it.
One part is that some people expect the camera do it all for you. Nope, not going to happen. At the end of the day you still need to tell the camera what to do, one way or another. With several people in the frame the camera can only guess which one you want to focus on. And with the situation changing it doesn’t know if you want to stick with one person or changing to another at one point. You need to be in control.
The other reason is that even with a z9 and a 500mm PF telephoto lens you are too far away if your little bird is half a football field away. Even with 45mp you should fill that frame as much as possible, to get detail. I’m not a bird photographer, but grabbing the camera and pointing it a a distant small thing/bird is a recipe for disaster, never mind if you got a z5 with a 24-200mm or a z9 with a 500mm PF. That’s not how great images are made.
Yes, there are a lot of such images out there on the internet, cropped to death, over-sharpened, taken with great equipment, not just the z9. However, usually the reaction is ‘what’s wrong with my camera?’ Try to look at what’s behind the camera, that’s where things mostly go wrong. Yourself. And yes, that’s where I look, too, if the results weren’t what I wanted. Myself. Think about it, if others manage to take great images with the same setup you have, then it’s likely not the camera… There are times where it’s perhaps better to let go. If you’re too far away, try to get closer. If you can’t, let go. Work within the capabilities of your system, work with what you have, what it can do. And realize, yes, every system has its limits.
Bottom line is today’s top of the line cameras are marvelous. Don’t worry about the specs, go out and shoot. If you do it right, the results will be accordingly. If not, the best camera and lens won’t do anything good for you.
Stacked sensor in the z9 – could it be re-used in another body?
Nikon – what’s next?
Basically most of the line up needs an overwork, plus some additions perhaps.
Be it a potential high resolution z8, z6/z7 III updates, or new high tier APS-C bodies in the form of a z70 or z90, there are plenty of options (and demands) for Nikon’s next move.
What’s my guess?
A z7 III would be the most logical in my opinion. And it really is just a guess, and your guess is as good as mine.
D850 (z8?) and D500 (z70/80?) customers are those who haven’t gotten “their” Z camera yet. Some will have bought a z9, but others will not, be it because of price point or body size. Then there are the z6/7 series, which aren’t as great as they could be. Out of those options, the z7 III needs the least new parts of all the options, so it would make perfectly sense as Nikon’s next move.
Nikon z7 III?
The big question is what such a shutterless, stacked sensor z7 III would cost. If it gets close to $4000 or even to $4500 it doesn’t make much sense, too close to the z9. However if they can keep it at about d850/z7 original launch price, $3300-3400, it might be an interesting option for many. Considerably lower in price than the z9, good for those who still hang on to their d850’s and perhaps even for some of the d500 camp. Add to that z7 first generation owners, like myself.
The question is if this will be doable price-wise. I think this possibility might exist. First, because there’s some savings due to the omission of the shutter. The shutter box is a fairly complex and costly piece so not having it will offset the higher price of the stacked sensor to a point. Second, ordering the sensor in higher volume should have an effect on its price. Of course there are those, who say that such a lowish price is impossible due to the expensive stacked sensor.
However, this reminds me much of the talk when FF sensors showed up – too expensive for ‘mainstream cameras’. It took one year from the D3 to the D700, then another 4 years to the D600. Plus, when looking at the pro-grade bodies and their prices I think the cost of making those gripped pro-grade bodies is underestimated, in particular if I look at the D3/D700, D4/D800, D5/D850 pricing.
So yes, I think it might be possible for Nikon to launch such a Nikon z7 III. But as said, just guessing here as everybody else on the net. Only Nikon knows for now.
Nikon’s new image processor. Which body will get it next?
How about the Dx line?
The other big question is what to do about the Dx cameras? Go full out stacked as in z90? With a cost of $2500-2700 (judging by the recent Fuji launch)? There sure is an audience for such a body, but I think quite a few might go for a z7 III as above, with such a comparatively small advantage in price, when looking at a body plus a set of lenses.
Something along the line of Canon’s R7 makes more sense in my opinion, a true Dx ‘budget action’ camera with more speed, better AF, and IBIS. Even if it would be a little more expensive than the R7 it would likely find a wider audience, with about $3000 in total for such a z70 combined with the upcoming 200-600mm zoom.
How about a higher resolution z8?
The other candidate would be a new high megapixel body, as perhaps in a z8. There are rumors about higher MP from Sony and Canon and I think that sooner or later 45mp will become the new ‘standard’ at one point. Remember when so many said that the 12mp of the D3/300 is all ever needed, and the 24.5mp of the D3x over the top, too big the files, yadda-yadda? So yes, I think the empty z8 slot is for such a high MP camera, as the 8-series has been the high MP body since the D3x morphed into the way more successful D800 series.
And the bottom line is?
Include an update to the z6 III and that’s four important and big projects to tackle for Nikon – or rather already being tackled, considering development times for new bodies. An announcement later this year, then two mid of 2023, and another one announced late in 2023, perhaps? In whatever sequence.
If supply chains play nicely, and wars, and viruses, and what not… Of course your guess is as good as mine.
However, one thing for sure – the Nikon development guys are not sitting at their desks doing nothing but celebrating their successful z9 with copious amounts of sake. Still, I hope they had time to celebrate a bit. Cheers!
As you can see I think there is quite some interesting development ahead. Once, over a period of time, those announcements are made it will take additional time until the products hit the shelves in quantity. Never mind, I have a Z body, it delivers great images, I can wait. And I think there’s the key – don’t expect the next launch to be ‘yours’. Look at it in an extended time frame, and I’m quite sure there will be something for most of us.
It’s the click bait rumors about an imminent launch of a particular body, which build up false expectations and hence disappointment if they don’t occur. And yes, those are all just rumors, no-one knows anything with substance right now. Nothing but guess work. Like mine above, our your own.
In the meantime, enjoy photography with whatever equipment you’ve got.
Bangkok, after sundown, z7 first generation, still a great camera!
Nikon announced the retro-style 21mp APS-C Zfc on the 28th of June, much to my surprise. It certainly was a well guarded secret as no leaks had been reported until about four weeks before its official launch. At first glance the much rumored z30 might have made more sense regarding their overall line-up. However, with the current shortage of electronic parts the postponement of a true entry level body set below the z50 is likely the right decision – if there was to be a z30 to begin with. So far the reactions about the Zfc have been divided between those who love the design inspired by the classic FM-2 and those who prefer modern ergonomics. After all the Zfc is essentially an improved z50 with a new design, adding not much to Nikon’s line-up in the eyes of those who would have preferred another body or an updated z50. But is there really nothing new?
What’s new?
Actually, a lot. There have been reports about improvements of the AF system, which is always a good thing. Then there’s a swivel screen, which can be turned sideways and forward, great for vlogging or taking selfies. However, the real news is the top dials. ISO, shutter speed and exposure control all got their own dial on the top plate, while keeping the front/rear combination as on the z50. This results in a different way of handling the camera, aimed at an entirely different group of users, and that’s why this camera could be a real winner for Nikon. Targeting a new user segment. In particular in Asia this could be a very important camera for Nikon as retro-style is very popular there – and yes, China took over from the USA as the biggest market for Nikon in 2020. And that’s where the colours come into play, too.
The colours
From pretty in pink to classic silver the choice of colors offers something for everyone. The fact that there are so far only two lenses adapted to the classic look is likely not a major consideration for most potential buyers. As the CIPA lens report states most APS-C users buy mainly zoom lenses. For those one or two silver zooms and perhaps a single prime will do. Those who plan a larger setup with more lenses got the grey and silver body options, which both should go well with the minimalist black design of the Z series lenses. The only colour option I would stay away from is white, as it might go the way many other white consumer goods go if used frequently – and that’s dirty. I really like the grey version, as it offers something different from the standard silver/black or all black while likely still looking good with black lenses.
No grip?
The biggest difference in terms of ergonomics is likely the absence of a large, comfortable hand grip (albeit it seems a small grip will be available at one point). And yes, this is a major concern for some. However, the intention of this camera is not to serve as a professional workhorse, held throughout the entire day during a prolonged shoot. It’s much more the camera you bring along when going about the more pleasant parts of life. It’s for a more casual use, and the absence of a large, well formed grip will matter much less in such situations. On top of that the intended user group is unlikely to mount any heavy f2.8 zooms or large telephoto lenses on the Zfc. In this sense the absence of a grip is a well chosen design choice, form over function is the right way to go here.
Two kit options
Initially Nikon offers the Zfc as two kit options apart from body only. One includes the 16-50mm f3.5-6,3 (24-75mm in Fx terms) standard zoom, a great companion for those who want some zoom capability while keeping the size small (about US$1100 for this kit). The other option includes a new 28mm f2.8 compact prime lens (42mm Fx equivalent, about US$1200 bundled with the Zfc). This is actually a Fx lens, keeping the option to seamless upgrade to Nikon’s more advanced Fx line open. Whatever the choice, the Zfc is an intriguing camera, not only for its looks, but for its handling with the additional dials as well.
The dials
Shooting my z7 mainly with autoISO on and over/under exposing frequently the Zfc offers some interesting possibilities. For one in a fully manual mode the front/rear dial remain, but the exposure compensation is easily accessible now through its own dial, instead of the button push and dial combination on other Nikons. That’s one click less, and that’s a good thing if you use it often. I prefer this arrangement over the option of using the clickless lens ring on the z7. The other interesting detail is the ISO dial, in particular if used with aperture priority (A). Nikon’s autoISO allows you to set a minimum shutter speed along with the maximum ISO. However, this minimum speed shouldn’t be the same at all times, depending on what one shoots or what lens used. This is where the ISO dial comes in – it allows to quickly adjust the minimum ISO resulting in a faster shutter speed. Such more specific control of the slowest shutter speed within A might sound like a small detail, but it makes the use of A more versatile and can negate the need of changing into another mode. Again, a fast, one click operation, similar to the exposure compensation. I don’t see myself using the shutter speed dial often as I prefer the rear dial here. That said, if the camera is low down on a tripod it might come in handy.
To buy or not to buy
The Zfc came along while waiting for the z30, a potential candidate to replace my Nikon 1 j5 as a ‘walkaround’ body, with a permanent place in my day bag. A z50 was the other option, until the Zfc came along. Not only offers it what the z50 has, the dials allow for interesting new shooting styles as well, and it just looks gorgeous, too! Yes, this is it, the Zfc will find its way into my day bag, once it is really available, which might take a while due the current shortage of components. Plus I’ve got the feeling I’m not the only one who will want one.
Nikon announced two new macro lenses for the Z system in June, the 105mm f2.8 VR S and the 50mm f2.8 MC. Both are capable of 1:1 magnification. Both have been reviewed recently and the consensus is that both are a noticeable improvement in terms of sharpness and overall IQ over the AF-S VR Micro Nikkor 105mm f/2.8G IF-ED and the AF-S Micro Nikkor 60mm f/2.8G ED. This is no surprise really as those two lenses are from 2006 and 2008 respectively. Prices at launch are US$999 and US$650, which is rather reasonable considering the US$830 and US$550 launch prices of their AF-S counterparts more than a decade ago. But let’s take a quick look at the two new lenses.
Nikkor Z MC 105mm f/2.8 VR S
Probably the more popular of the two lenses the new 105mm micro allows for a 1:1 magnification at 29cm – which results in a working distance of about 13cm from the front of the lens. This will make it popular with all those who shoot small, moving critters, as the longer working distance will scare them away less. In terms of size it has gotten somewhat larger but a bit over 100g lighter at the same time. However, one of the most important aspects of this new micro lens is a much faster AF speed compared to the old one. This allows much better use of the lens for other purposes such as portraits for example. This alone makes the new 105mm a much better proposition then the old AF-S, along with the considerable improvements in terms of image quality, of course.
Nikkor Z MC 50mm f/2.8
The much smaller 50mm micro has the same 1:1 magnification at 16cm minimum focusing distance. This translates into a working distance of just under 6cm from the front of the lens. Therefor this lens is better suited to the little things which don’t try to run away, such as images of small detail or food. It doubles as an 50mm prime with quick AF performance and can be used with Nikon’s ES2 slide/negative copying adapter (the Z 105mm can’t). additionally the MC 50mm is Nikon’s most compact standard prime lens yet, smaller and lighter than both, the Z 50mm f1.8 S and the AF-S 60mm f/2.8G ED . This small size was achieved by a construction where the lens extends when being used in the macro range. Being just 6.6cm long and coming in at a mere 260g, as opposed to the 425g of the older Af-S version, is the real appeal of this lens, along with its versatility of doubling as a macro and standard prime lens. Despite not being an S series lens construction did not suffer, the lens is fully weather sealed, as is the 105mm as seen in the images below.
To buy or not to buy
Between the two lenses the two lenses the Nikkor Z MC 50mm f/2.8 is my real star of this launch. Not being a dedicated macro shooter but focusing on a compact yet versatile setup it sits perfectly in the gap between the Nikkor Z 14-30mm f4 S and the AF-P 70-300mm f4.5-5.6E (on the FTZ adapter). The Nikkor Z MC 105mm f/2.8 VR S remains an attractive option because of its 1:1 magnification and fast AF speed, combined with a reasonable price. It is the obvious choice for the dedicated macro shooter, which I’m not. However, it’s so enticing at that price that I might well add it to my setup later on for dedicated macro outings – just because I can and it’s such a great lens in the Z line.
About on year ago, by mid of March 2020, there was an offer in Switzerland for the z7, with 24-70 f4 kit lens, FTZ adapter and 64GB Sony XQD card for about US$ 2960 after the tax back (7.7%). Since then I have taken about 30’000 images with the z7, mostly in and around Bangkok.
This review will be updated with more detail, but there’s one thing for sure: It’s a fantastic camera, despite the negative press it got from certain you-tubers.
Image quality
IQ (Image Quality) is stunning. The 45.7mp sensor delivers and is on par or better than all other sensors of the class. 8256 x 5504 pixels at its maximum resolution gives stunning detail, something I would not want to miss anymore. Banding has been reported, and I have found it in a handful of my images, out of 30’000. However, it’s only visible if you fully crank up the exposure AND shadow recovery sliders in post processing. Unless your are looking for an over-processed, unnatural HDR style it won’t matter at all, in particular as not all images of a series are affected. Banding never caused any real issues for my photography, even when recovering shadows quite a bit. ISO performance is excellent for a such a sensor. Coming from a Nikon D3, which I shot to a maximum of ISO 3200, I was surprised to find out that I can use the z7 to at least ISO 6400, if combined with the right noise reduction software. I use Capture One and Topaz Denoise AI for such high ISO imagery. Images look very pleasing overall, RAW (NEF) straight out of camera, and I have to do much less editing compare to my previous cameras. My preferred picture control settings is standard, with colour saturation up one notch to do justice to the vibrant colours found in the tropics.
Little Gina, z7 with 24-70mm f4 at 6400iso, NR applied, eye as viewed at 100% (click to enlarge).
Video
Wrong number, please dial again. I’m not a video shooter. I record a few clips every now and then, and it looks gorgeous on my TV at home, but if you need to know what the z7 can or cannot do in terms of video you will have to look elsewhere. I like what I see on my screens at home, don’t think I will ever need anything better than this, and am sure I could produce some very decent video with the z7, but not going to happen any time soon. I shoot stills.
Performance – AF, fps & burst
The Nikon z7 is maybe not the fastest camera out there, however it’s no slouch either. AF performance is definitely up to the task, even for erratic or fast moving subjects. I often shoot motorcycles and people, including kids, and don’t feel the z7 is trailing behind my previous body, the D3 sports shooter. The larger AF area, covering about 90% of the entire frame, allows for better and faster composition – as the different AF modes do. Using the front function button (combined with the two main dials) allows for quick cycling through the A and area modes. AF-S combined with single spot or dynamic AF for static and slow moving subjects, fully automatic area AF with face/eye detection for one person, or my favourites, area AF small/wide on AF-C, for anything that moves as speed. The technique used here is to pre-compose the image by moving the AF box to where the focus area should be in the final image, then keeping this box on the intended focus area of the subject (face, eye, head, hand, helmet, part of a vehicle, etc). This needs some practice, of course, but allows for control, which I prefer over fully automatic systems. If a person wants is buying something from a vendor on a market, where do I want the focus – on the vendor, customer, or perhaps even on the money changing hands? Which of the 35 motorcycles zooming away from a red traffic light in Bangkok to focus on? This is the level of control I want and area AF small/wide allows me to be in charge.
The newer z7 II has got area AF wide combined with face/eye detection, which I consider a very useful addition, more so than faster AF speed per se. This would be the primary reason for me to change to a Nikon z7 II – but I won’t as it doesn’t justify the extra expense. After all my first generation z7 still enables me to catch the moments I want to.
Burst speed is fine at 8fps (on H extended, with AF-C but exposure locked) for 14-bit lossless compressed NEF files for up to about 20 frames. The buffer clears fast and as I rather shoot in bursts of 3-8 frames with short intervals in between I have never ended up in a situation where I couldn’t take any more images. 5fps in H (with both AF-C and Exposure) suffices in most cases but I’m glad to have that bit of extra speed for fast moving action. Bottom line is that the z7 delivers solid performance in all aspects for my use case. Other systems might be even faster and more automated, but if you know what you’re doing this is a highly capable camera in the speed and AF department.
Electronic viewfinder
An overall positive surprise. Well, not entirely surprised as I used my Nikon j5 via the rear LCD for five years previously. Thus I wasn’t really new to the advantage of previewing your image with exposure compensation applied while shooting. This is the big thing of a mirrorless camera: to be able to see the image as you shoot it, in this case in the EVF (electronic viewfinder) or on the LCD screen at the back of the camera. I over- and underexposure a lot, previewing my exposure in the EVF allows for much faster shooting as there is no more need to take the camera away from the eye. The preview is overall a tad too bright in my opinion, but one gets easily used to this and can reliably predict the result within a short period of time.
There are different modes for the EVF, with or without blackout. With blackout the experience is much like with a dSLR, at least at fast shutter speeds. Without blackout, called ‘silent photography’ in Nikon language (found in the ‘photo shooting menu’) the experience is varies and there certainly is room for improvement. While shooting in this mode the frame just shot is shown for a moment in the EVF. Thus when shooting fast bursts one sees essentially a ‘slide show’ of images instead of a flow. This stutter is a problem when shooting fast action, in particular when panning. Shooting short bursts of 3-4 frames helps here. Limitations are the readout speed of the sensor and the refresh rate of the EVF. This has been improved somewhat in the z7 II but the real game changer will be in new sensor technology and image processors, likely to be featured in the upcoming Z line flagship.
As a side note, there is use of the ‘slide show’ effect in situations involving long exposures/light trails. With the camera on a tripod and shooting moving traffic at low light the effect can be seen in the EVF. Shooting cars zooming across an intersection you can see the length of the trails of the lights and the blur of the vehicle right when shooting, and adjust accordingly.
The image in the EVF is large, bright and crisp, great for composing images. Despite the issues mentioned above I would not want to go back to an optical viewfinder as the advantages outweigh the short comings.
Ergonomics
It’s a Nikon, and it feels and handles like a Nikon which is good news if you’re already familiar Nikon. The hand grip was my concern at first as my hands are rather large and I was used to the pro-body of the D3 and F5. However, I was willing to give it a try, as the grip felt comfortable overall, the concern being really the little finger having no support at the bottom of the grip. The overall smaller body resulting in better portability turned out to be a great advantage for me, and the pinky position much less a problem than I expected. I was surprised how fast I got used to it, as the entire hand is positioned somewhat higher up compared to previous bodies, more ‘over the top’, to access the ISO and Exposure Compensation buttons.
The set back viewfinder is another plus, function buttons in front next to the lens mount are perfectly accessible, the focus ring on lenses set to exposure compensation and a single button for the ‘i’ menu or the switch on the rear to move between video or still mode complete the handling experience. This took longer to get used to, not because of the ergonomics per se, but rather as it was new land coming from the Nikon D3. Considering the smaller size and weight savings this body is perfect for my use case, which involves carrying gear for hours on end, be it walking or cycling. For those who need absolutely need the vertical shutter release button the z6/7 II come with an optional vertical grip, for those who can’t get their pinky placed properly there are third part options, such as the Meike MK-Z7G.
Battery life
CIPA rating for the EN-EL15b battery is just 330 images. However, these numbers do usually not represent real life use and I easily get about 700 images per charge. If that’s not enough the battery is fairly small, at least compared to the EN-EL4a brick on my old D3, and carrying a spare is no problem. I much prefer to have two smaller batteries than one larger one. One in the bag and one in the camera, allows for a smaller body.
If one needs more power there is a battery grip (without controls) for the first generation Z series and one (with controls) for the second generation. The II series can be charged directly via USB with the battery in the camera as well, another improvement over the first edition. It takes quite a while to recharge the batteries with the supplied charger, so it is advisable to top up as soon as there is an opportunity if one runs low and expects some heavy use. The new EN-EL15c battery with 2280mAh offers about 20% more capacity and should therefore result in a somewhat higher number of images per charge.
–— Possible Nikon Fx/Dx bodies below or above the z50
Exciting news: Nikon Rumors is reporting a new Dx body and up to for lenses being announced soon. This definitely fits with the statement made by Nikon in the interview with Dpreview. It was hinted that there are some more Dx lenses coming and the compact prime series are meant for both Dx and Fx.
Which Dx body?
However the big question is what kind of Dx body? Will it be a z30, z70, or even a z90 (D500 style)? Looking at the sales number per year (based on serial numbers) the total number of Dx dSLR bodies sold is still fairly high, but it has been rapidly decreasing (while Canon’s mirrorless M50 seems to be very popular). While the overall number in this market segment might still shrink, those who still buy in this price range cameras are clearly going for mirrorless options nowadays.
There sure is space for two additional Dx bodies in the Z lineup, however a total of three Dx bodies between $600-1000 could be problematic. Two would be a better choice. However, the z50 sits smack in the middle there. A z50/70 pair, with the z50 going for about $750 and the the z70 for $950 would fit perfectly (or call it z30/z50 II). The problem is rather how to achieve this split of the Dx line into two bodies with where the z50 is positioned now. A z70 with IBIS and other updates at $950 might be an interesting option, however it would be very close to the z50. A further problem for such a z70 would be a z4 coming to the $1000 price class in the future. A z30 for $700 might be interesting as well, but once again very close to the z50. It will be very interesting to see how Nikon will manage this split.
It would be a surprise if a z90(D500) would be announced as this requires tech from the flagship and it seems the D500 didn’t sell very well to begin with. Add to that a price somewhere above the z6 series and it seems even less likely – even if the group of D500 users is very vocal on the various webpages or youtube channels and would like to see such a body.
This is a real tough call, and it will be interesting to see what decision Nikon will take. I’m sure their team considers all possible factors, including how the market might develop and how a new body series would integrate into the overall lineup (taking future updates of existing bodies into account).
Update (27.05.2021):
Rumors have it that the new body might be announced first week of June. They mention a ‘retro style’ body as well. Few more things happened since I wrote the post about the supposedly upcoming Dx body: A Nikon camera was registered, using the same battery as the z50, and Nikon’s financial year end report, including an outlook for the coming year.
There are two main points here; The retro style Nikon Df was Nikon’s worst selling body, after the D500, if we go per known serial numbers. Hence it would be rather surprising if Nikon goes that way. On the other hand more and more websites picked up the z30as a possible candidate. I think it would be a good move, even if it contradicts Nikon’s statement focusing on higher end models. An entry level body would give the brand more visibility in the public and if just a small percentage moves on to a more advanced body later on this could boost the sales of the range Nikon is targeting in the long run. Furthermore, even if the sales of Dx entry level dSLR’s dropped massively they still sold in significant numbers. In this sense a z30 could increase Nikon’s market share, which sure would be a good thing in the ongoing online ‘debate’ about Nikon being ‘doomed’. Overall, a z30 would have a lot going for it.
However, in their forecast Nikon predicted a smaller market share, despite the forecast of the camera market growing somewhat this coming year. Predicting a smaller market share would rather indicate not replacing the D3xxx series with a mirrorless counterpart such as the z30. In this light the new APS-C body announcement might well be something much less substantial, perhaps giving the z50 the same work over of the z6/7 II, and added IBIS. Call it z60/70 if with IBIS, simply z50 II if without. Drop the price of the z50 somewhat and the split of the line into two APS-C bodies is completed.
Well, we will see next week. Or let’s say we might see, as the product announcement itself is just a rumor to begin with – and here lies the main problem itself. Websites need clicks, rumors bring clicks. But at the same time expectations are being build up, leading to disappointment if the rumors don’t materialize.
The new lenses – the real stars?
The launch of the compact primes might well be the real exciting news of this rumored announcement. With a length of 50mm or even a bit less, these lenses will give the Z system a new aspect in terms of portability (and affordability). The additional lenses to be released could be the Dx 18-140mm, paired with the new Dx body, and one of the macro lenses. The 50/60mm micro would be the more logical partner if compactness and affordability is the priority of the rumored announcement.
This will make Nikon’s mirrorless lineup more attractive for particular groups of users – as will the upcoming flagship, paired with long telephoto lenses. It shows where Nikon is heading, and what the system might look like in a few years from now.
In an interview with dpreview Nikon has confirmed that a new flagship (perhaps z9, could be z1) is coming. It was said that the new flagship will surpass the D6 and use a newly developed high-resolution stacked CMOS sensor. With about 2 years between Expeed 5 and 6 it is likely that Expeed 7 will make its debut in this body. Stacked sensor, and more computing power will result in higher speed – AF, EVF, fps. Pro-body with integrated grip and $6k or thereabout can be expected as well. In the meantime the new Nikon flagship has been announced officially, but no further details or specifications given so far. With such a price tag this new flagship will be for many nothing but a technology demonstrator. This is a good thing as it will show where Nikon is headed and the new technology will find its way into other bodies sooner or later. With this in mind let’s take a look at the current Nikon Z lineup, and possible future options.
Nikon Z lineup
In the chart below current Z bodies are listed, along with a price range, which allows some flexibility between launch price and discounts later in the life cycle of a body. There are gaps between the price ranges, to the effect that even if a body gets an upgrade and launches at its highest price point it won’t conflict with the next body further up in the lineup. Next, in red, are possible new bodies, followed by the next generation (z7 III, z6 III, z5 II, z50 II) in blue, and finally some remarks. Important for a new body, and often neglected, is the next generation. Any new body has somehow to coexist with those future upgrades of existing body series – without cannibalizing their sales. In a still shrinking market, with high development costs spread over smaller production runs, it won’t be a smart idea having too many bodies, which are not enough differentiated from each other and sit in the same price range.
The Z8 gap
As we can see there’s a large gap between the z7 series and the new flagship. Question is what to put in there? The most logical implementation would be to use the z9 tech and put it into a z6/7 style body and call it z8. A bit like what the D700 was to the D3, about a year later. This would make most sense if the new sensor is 60mp (or more). If it remains at 45-50mp there would be a problem between this z8 and a potential z7 III. Another option is two new sensors from Nikon, which is well possible as the rumors have it that several new cameras were being tested. So maybe the z8 gets this higher resolution sensor, while the z9 (and a future z7 III) get the 46mp version. Works fine for all 3 bodies, different enough specs and prices to coexist.
A second new body for 2021?
This is is more difficult to work out. Previously Nikon mentioned in a interview new dSLR bodies coming. However, in a more recent interview they stated focusing on the mirrorless lineup instead. Add to this the newest CIPA (January 2020) numbers, with dSLR’s loosing more ground in both numbers and value, and Nikon could well do a “DL” here and cancel planned product launches in the dSLR line. Instrumental for a decision would be sales of the already released D780. If it does well, we might see new dSLR’s, like a D860 for example, if not, well… Only Nikon knows those sales numbers, but the other indicators mentioned above are not encouraging.
How about a Dx body?
Next option would be a D500 style mirrorless body (perhaps z90). However, it would sit right where the z5/6/7 are in the lineup, would require technology from the upcoming flagship for speed (AF, EVF, fps) and on top of this the D500 is likely a niche market. Projected sales numbers based on serial numbers of sold D500 cameras, plus APS-C loosing in both numbers and value against FF systems (according to the CIPA report linked above, see lens statistics there) indicate against such a mirrorless D500. Add to this that users of more advanced Dx bodies will demand more Dx lenses, which means more different products to be brought to a now much smaller market – resulting in more headaches for Nikon and everything else but an efficient and streamlined product range.
However, Nikon hinted several times now that there are some more Dx lenses coming, which makes another Dx body likely. New lens patents include a wide angle zoom and the 18-140 Dx zoom already on the lens roadmap. An entry level body (z30) could be a suitable companion to the z50, or a souped up body (z70) between it and the z5.
A z30 could provide an entry point to the Z system, with some of its buyers later on upgrading to another body. Keeping the Dx lens lineup small could be an advantage for those who want to upgrade to Fx, and yes, Nikon has stated several times that the upcoming compact prime lens series are meant for both, Dx and Fx users. Furthermore, a z30 doesn’t required any new technology, everything is already there. The problem with a z30 is more about the price point and the competition. If it has no EVF, it will have a tough stand with the Canon M50 around. If it comes with an EVF, how to differentiate it substantially enough from the z50? A z70, with IBIS, would be easier to differentiate, but sits in a tight spot between the z50 and a potential $1000 z4 Fx in a few years. Still, there is a gap there, and the problem could be solved by repositioning those two Dx bodies in the future if required. So a pair of Dx bodies are a possibility, be it z30/50 or z50/70. There could even be 3 Dx bodies, z30 (no EVF), z50 (EVF) and z70 (EVF+IBIS), but the question is how much does Nikon want to put into Dx with Fx getting stronger (remember the CIPA report above, where FX lens sales expanded, while Dx contracted).
Of course all of this is guess work, and your guess is as good as mine. However, I’ve tried to put everything into perspective of a complete setup, including future updates of existing models, and without thinking what would be suitable for myself. My personal next buy could be a z30, or a second hand z50, to replace my Nikon 1 j5 as my go-around body, which is at home in my office bag. Next would be the z7 III, once it gets the extra (speed) boost from the upcoming flagship, but obviously this is years away. Until then I’m happy to add a few more lenses to my setup as my first generation z7 continues to do a great job.
All production numbers are based on available information about Nikon serial numbers found here: www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html Be aware that these serial numbers are incomplete and therefore do not represent accurate production numbers. Still, certain trends can be shown and it is the only information available – Nikon knows more but they do not publish detailed production numbers.
First shown is production per year of certain cameras. Note that this is not an accurate timeline when it comes to launch dates of particular bodies, but rather intended to show how certain product lines developed since about 2008:
Overall the decline of the camera industry from 2012 onward can be seen in some models, combined with a much faster decline of certain dSLR’s after 2015/2016, mostly in the lower price segment. In particular the D610/D750 FX bodies resisted the overall drop in sales much better than DX, so the launching of the Z6 was a logical move and is reflected in its sales numbers.
Some additional notes:
the massive drop in dSLR sales reflects overall CIPA statistics.
the Z5, Z6 II and Z7 II are not included as there are only very low (too few submissions?) serials available.
I have been very pessimistic about a Z-version of the D500 and the overall low yearly sales, combined with a contracting market, is the reason. It is a niche market. I don’t expect such a body being high on Nikon’s priority list, the more so as it would compete with future updates of the Z6/7 series.
Of course your analysis and conclusion based on these numbers might be different.
Here’s more detailed information, with a better time line. Certain camera bodies were combined to make it a bit easier to view (click to enlarge):
