Nikon – what’s next?
Basically most of the line up needs an overwork, plus some additions perhaps.
Be it a potential high resolution z8, z6/z7 III updates, or new high tier APS-C bodies in the form of a z70 or z90, there are plenty of options (and demands) for Nikon’s next move.
What’s my guess?
A z7 III would be the most logical in my opinion. And it really is just a guess, and your guess is as good as mine.
D850 (z8?) and D500 (z70/80?) customers are those who haven’t gotten “their” Z camera yet. Some will have bought a z9, but others will not, be it because of price point or body size. Then there are the z6/7 series, which aren’t as great as they could be. Out of those options, the z7 III needs the least new parts of all the options, so it would make perfectly sense as Nikon’s next move.
Nikon z7 III?
The big question is what such a shutterless, stacked sensor z7 III would cost. If it gets close to $4000 or even to $4500 it doesn’t make much sense, too close to the z9. However if they can keep it at about d850/z7 original launch price, $3300-3400, it might be an interesting option for many. Considerably lower in price than the z9, good for those who still hang on to their d850’s and perhaps even for some of the d500 camp. Add to that z7 first generation owners, like myself.
The question is if this will be doable price-wise. I think this possibility might exist. First, because there’s some savings due to the omission of the shutter. The shutter box is a fairly complex and costly piece so not having it will offset the higher price of the stacked sensor to a point. Second, ordering the sensor in higher volume should have an effect on its price. Of course there are those, who say that such a lowish price is impossible due to the expensive stacked sensor.
However, this reminds me much of the talk when FF sensors showed up – too expensive for ‘mainstream cameras’. It took one year from the D3 to the D700, then another 4 years to the D600. Plus, when looking at the pro-grade bodies and their prices I think the cost of making those gripped pro-grade bodies is underestimated, in particular if I look at the D3/D700, D4/D800, D5/D850 pricing.
So yes, I think it might be possible for Nikon to launch such a Nikon z7 III. But as said, just guessing here as everybody else on the net. Only Nikon knows for now.
How about the Dx line?
The other big question is what to do about the Dx cameras? Go full out stacked as in z90? With a cost of $2500-2700 (judging by the recent Fuji launch)? There sure is an audience for such a body, but I think quite a few might go for a z7 III as above, with such a comparatively small advantage in price, when looking at a body plus a set of lenses.
Something along the line of Canon’s R7 makes more sense in my opinion, a true Dx ‘budget action’ camera with more speed, better AF, and IBIS. Even if it would be a little more expensive than the R7 it would likely find a wider audience, with about $3000 in total for such a z70 combined with the upcoming 200-600mm zoom.
How about a higher resolution z8?
The other candidate would be a new high megapixel body, as perhaps in a z8. There are rumors about higher MP from Sony and Canon and I think that sooner or later 45mp will become the new ‘standard’ at one point. Remember when so many said that the 12mp of the D3/300 is all ever needed, and the 24.5mp of the D3x over the top, too big the files, yadda-yadda? So yes, I think the empty z8 slot is for such a high MP camera, as the 8-series has been the high MP body since the D3x morphed into the way more successful D800 series.
And the bottom line is?
Include an update to the z6 III and that’s four important and big projects to tackle for Nikon – or rather already being tackled, considering development times for new bodies. An announcement later this year, then two mid of 2023, and another one announced late in 2023, perhaps? In whatever sequence.
If supply chains play nicely, and wars, and viruses, and what not… Of course your guess is as good as mine.
However, one thing for sure – the Nikon development guys are not sitting at their desks doing nothing but celebrating their successful z9 with copious amounts of sake. Still, I hope they had time to celebrate a bit. Cheers!
As you can see I think there is quite some interesting development ahead. Once, over a period of time, those announcements are made it will take additional time until the products hit the shelves in quantity. Never mind, I have a Z body, it delivers great images, I can wait. And I think there’s the key – don’t expect the next launch to be ‘yours’. Look at it in an extended time frame, and I’m quite sure there will be something for most of us.
It’s the click bait rumors about an imminent launch of a particular body, which build up false expectations and hence disappointment if they don’t occur. And yes, those are all just rumors, no-one knows anything with substance right now. Nothing but guess work. Like mine above, our your own.
In the meantime, enjoy photography with whatever equipment you’ve got.
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