New Nikon Dx body and compact primes coming ?

New Nikon Dx body and compact primes coming?

–— Possible Nikon Fx/Dx bodies below or above the z50

Exciting news: Nikon Rumors is reporting a new Dx body and up to for lenses being announced soon. This definitely fits with the statement made by Nikon in the interview with Dpreview. It was hinted that there are some more Dx lenses coming and the compact prime series are meant for both Dx and Fx.

Which Dx body?

However the big question is what kind of Dx body? Will it be a z30, z70, or even a z90 (D500 style)?
Looking at the sales number per year (based on serial numbers) the total number of Dx dSLR bodies sold is still fairly high, but it has been rapidly decreasing (while Canon’s mirrorless M50 seems to be very popular). While the overall number in this market segment might still shrink, those who still buy in this price range cameras are clearly going for mirrorless options nowadays.

There sure is space for two additional Dx bodies in the Z lineup, however a total of three Dx bodies between $600-1000 could be problematic. Two would be a better choice. However, the z50 sits smack in the middle there. A z50/70 pair, with the z50 going for about $750 and the the z70 for $950 would fit perfectly (or call it z30/z50 II). The problem is rather how to achieve this split of the Dx line into two bodies with where the z50 is positioned now.
A z70 with IBIS and other updates at $950 might be an interesting option, however it would be very close to the z50. A further problem for such a z70 would be a z4 coming to the $1000 price class in the future. A z30 for $700 might be interesting as well, but once again very close to the z50. It will be very interesting to see how Nikon will manage this split.

It would be a surprise if a z90(D500) would be announced as this requires tech from the flagship and it seems the D500 didn’t sell very well to begin with. Add to that a price somewhere above the z6 series and it seems even less likely – even if the group of D500 users is very vocal on the various webpages or youtube channels and would like to see such a body.

This is a real tough call, and it will be interesting to see what decision Nikon will take. I’m sure their team considers all possible factors, including how the market might develop and how a new body series would integrate into the overall lineup (taking future updates of existing bodies into account).

Update (27.05.2021):

Rumors have it that the new body might be announced first week of June. They mention a ‘retro style’ body as well. Few more things happened since I wrote the post about the supposedly upcoming Dx body: A Nikon camera was registered, using the same battery as the z50, and Nikon’s financial year end report, including an outlook for the coming year.

There are two main points here; The retro style Nikon Df was Nikon’s worst selling body, after the D500, if we go per known serial numbers. Hence it would be rather surprising if Nikon goes that way. On the other hand more and more websites picked up the z30as a possible candidate. I think it would be a good move, even if it contradicts Nikon’s statement focusing on higher end models. An entry level body would give the brand more visibility in the public and if just a small percentage moves on to a more advanced body later on this could boost the sales of the range Nikon is targeting in the long run. Furthermore, even if the sales of Dx entry level dSLR’s dropped massively they still sold in significant numbers. In this sense a z30 could increase Nikon’s market share, which sure would be a good thing in the ongoing online ‘debate’ about Nikon being ‘doomed’. Overall, a z30 would have a lot going for it.

However, in their forecast Nikon predicted a smaller market share, despite the forecast of the camera market growing somewhat this coming year. Predicting a smaller market share would rather indicate not replacing the D3xxx series with a mirrorless counterpart such as the z30. In this light the new APS-C body announcement might well be something much less substantial, perhaps giving the z50 the same work over of the z6/7 II, and added IBIS. Call it z60/70 if with IBIS, simply z50 II if without. Drop the price of the z50 somewhat and the split of the line into two APS-C bodies is completed.

Well, we will see next week. Or let’s say we might see, as the product announcement itself is just a rumor to begin with – and here lies the main problem itself. Websites need clicks, rumors bring clicks. But at the same time expectations are being build up, leading to disappointment if the rumors don’t materialize.

The new lenses – the real stars?

The launch of the compact primes might well be the real exciting news of this rumored announcement. With a length of 50mm or even a bit less, these lenses will give the Z system a new aspect in terms of portability (and affordability). The additional lenses to be released could be the Dx 18-140mm, paired with the new Dx body, and one of the macro lenses. The 50/60mm micro would be the more logical partner if compactness and affordability is the priority of the rumored announcement.

This will make Nikon’s mirrorless lineup more attractive for particular groups of users – as will the upcoming flagship, paired with long telephoto lenses. It shows where Nikon is heading, and what the system might look like in a few years from now.