New Nikon Bodies? - farsamkeit

The z30 was Nikon’s only new body launch in 2021.

New Nikon bodies coming?

The rumor kitchen is hot these days. Indeed Nikon released just one body in 2022 – or two if you count the z9 in as it got into the hands of the first customers only very late in ’21. Therefore it’s about time for some updates to existing bodies – or even a new launch or two to augment the Z lineup.

Nikon’s problem is that there’s a lot of updates to be done, and quite a few new launches are possible as well. Let’s take a look:

Updates:
z6 III
z7 III
z50 II

Launch:
z8
z70/z90
Zf
z3

Looking a priorities I would put the z6/7 III updates plus the z70/z8 launches as top priorities. Not necessarily in that order, but those four bodies. That alone would be quite a feat for one year.

How about the z8 rumors?

There has been a rumor that the z8 should have been launched late 2022 but got delayed for whatever reasons – perhaps the supply chain issues. That’s well possible, but nobody knows really except those involved in the projects.

On top of that the only reliable source – called Nokishita and usually posted first on Nikon rumors – seems to be gone. More recent launches, such as the 85mm f1.2, came with very few rumors prior to official statements. Accidentally shipped warranty cards as posted on Nikonrumors were the first concrete indicators, by mid December 2022. First leaked pictures were on January 3, just one day ahead of Nikon’s official development announcement on January 4, 2023.

For the Nikon z30, Nikonrumors first announced “Nikon is rumored to announce a new Nikon Z30 APS-C mirrorless camera soon” on June 6, 2022. Then there were a few more articles but no additional concrete information really until the leak (June 27) of the official announcement (June 29). So first rumors were roughly one month before the official launch.

Bottom line is that Nikon currently controls the rumors very well, about one month in advance is all there is in terms of substantial leaks, if that much. Everything else is nothing but internet fog, made up by people like you and I. Some ‘experts’ even go the “I know but I don’t tell you” route now these days. Kids do that if they don’t know more than other kids do – and in my opinion that’s about as much as such an approach/expertise is worth. Zippo, zilch, nada. Apart from Nikonrumors I haven’t seen anything convincing on the net recently, and even there it’s down to one month in advance at the most.

So anything can happen really, and nobody knows really right now.

What will Nikon launch next?

The reasons for my priority launch list above are:

z8 – Nikon thought something when leaving that moniker empty when they came up with the numbering system for the Z bodies. There will be something going in there at one point. The 8-series has been their high-res one since they moved it from above the flagships (D3x) to below (D800). Add the launch of the Z 85mm f1.2 S and the Z 35mm f1.2 S on the roadmap and a high-res body makes sense in this slot for this year. It could come with an entirely new sensor design and made by Sony (more expensive) or use the existing 61mp Sony sensor, with Nikon’s in-house modifications (likely cheaper). They would have had certainly enough time to modify that sensor. Overall this seems quite a plausible approach for a z8, and such a high-res body would not cannibalize/collide with the z9.

z6/z7 III – Those are definitely up for their next sequel as I think Nikon launched the II’s more to rectify some of the initial complaints than as a real sequel. Hard to say what they will be, but I guess mainly a more matured product. Tweaked sensors for faster readout resulting in more speed, better viewfinder experience and improved AF with z9 goodies. I don’t think Nikon will go stacked sensor here – except if they can pull it off to put the z9 sensor in the z7. Cost saving by eliminating the shutter – and expensive precision part – plus ordering the sensor in much larger quantities just might make it possible to keep the z7 III around US$3300-3500. In my opinion this would not cannibalize z9 sales as those who use large telephoto lenses and shoot thousands of images in a very short time period would not go for the much smaller, grip-less design of the z6/7 with much shorter battery life. Internet claims that the sales of the d3 ‘tanked’ because of the launch of the d700 have no data to back up their claim. If you head over to www.photosynthesis.co.nz you will see that the d3 was one of their most successful full-sized pro bodies ever. The Data there certainly is not complete but it is the only data we have. I much prefer it over made up voices from the internet.

z70/z90 – A fast Dx camera with IBIS sure would be popular among the budget birders, in combination with the upcoming Z 200-600mm zoom. While the d500 didn’t sell that well in comparison to its Fx peers, the bird/wildlife niche is one that likely didn’t shrink in the past few years. In this sense it might be more important in the lineup these days. The question here is will Nikon go in full monty or economy? A cheaper z70, along Canon’s R7 lines and around US$1500-1700 would certainly result in more sales. Combined with the Z 200-600mm a good birding machine for about or under US$3500 in total, yes, that would appeal too many.

Of course there are those who want an even better Dx body, a mirrorless version of the d500, perhaps called z90. The big question here is the sensor. A stacked sensor will cost more, add to that a higher quality body and I think you’re looking at rather US$2500 or even more l. Throw in US$2000 for the Z 200-600mm and you’re looking at US$4500 – that’s quite a bit more than the US$3400 of the d500/AF-S 200-500 combo. Of course one never knows, perhaps they can pull it off by omitting the shutter, z90 with stacked sensor at US$ 2000-2200? Who knows, maybe we’re in for a surprise, and at one point they will likely need a stacked sensor anyway. Still, I tend to lean towards the cheaper option here, I think a z70 would make more sense.

Zf/z3 – Those are rather ‘nice to have options’ right now. I think for now Nikon’s focus should be on those 4 bodies mentioned above. Of the two I see the z3 making more sense – there are likely more video creators who like an affordable but more capable ‘creator’ camera than enthusiasts and hipsters who like a more capable and rather expensive ‘retro’ Fx body.

Each of the z50/Zfc/z30 triplet serves the same purpose – providing different users an entry into the Z system. This is not the case with a Zf or z3, as those would be already advanced products. The Df sold in small numbers only – looking at the serial numbers it was Nikon’s worst selling body during its time period. It was a pet project and had its fans, but it is questionable if such a project is still viable these days, with a much smaller market putting pressure on the companies.

It’s not just ‘taking parts from the bin’ as sometimes claimed on the internet – these parts have to be made work with each other, firmware has to be adjusted/reprogrammed, a production line set up. These development costs are significant, even if some parts are reused, and must result in a return.

Only Nikon knows…

Based on their experience and data Nikon knows best if and in what form such cameras would be viable. Internet forums and comment sections dominated by a few hundred enthusiasts are not representative, they don’t reflect the market. If such cameras come – and they might well do at one point – I think they would be rather on the lower end in terms of price, unlike the Df.

In any case Nikon will announce new bodies, the absurd ‘Nikon doesn’t want to launch new bodies to be able to milk the success of the z9 for longer’ is just that – absurd.

It’s just a question of what will be first and when. If you have a camera enabling you to create images right now you can likely wait. If you think you can’t, go ahead, buy something available right now – just be aware that having the ‘best’ camera is like chasing rainbows. There always will be another ‘best’ camera around the corner.

Another good strategy could be picking up a good second hand z6 or z7 if it has to be now. Those are available at good prices right now and will give you something to work with and start your Z glass collection. After all even if the perfect body for you will launch this year it might take quite some time until you get one in your hands. The more so if you plan to wait for a good deal.

That’s why I got a z7 some three years ago – to get into the Z system, knowing that it will take a few years until I get to hold my ‘perfect’ Z body. And yes, it’s still going strong, and it’s a very capable camera, despite what some folks claim on the internet.