Photography News

09/03/2021

Nikon lineup – New Z flagship coming

In an interview with dpreview Nikon has confirmed that a new flagship (perhaps z9, could be z1) is coming. It was said that the new flagship will surpass the D6 and use a newly developed high-resolution stacked CMOS sensor. With about 2 years between Expeed 5 and 6 it is likely that Expeed 7 will make its debut in this body. Stacked sensor, and more computing power will result in higher speed – AF, EVF, fps. Pro-body with integrated grip and $6k or thereabout can be expected as well. In the meantime the new Nikon flagship has been announced officially, but no further details or specifications given so far.
With such a price tag this new flagship will be for many nothing but a technology demonstrator. This is a good thing as it will show where Nikon is headed and the new technology will find its way into other bodies sooner or later. With this in mind let’s take a look at the current Nikon Z lineup, and possible future options.

Nikon Z lineup

In the chart below current Z bodies are listed, along with a price range, which allows some flexibility between launch price and discounts later in the life cycle of a body. There are gaps between the price ranges, to the effect that even if a body gets an upgrade and launches at its highest price point it won’t conflict with the next body further up in the lineup.
Next, in red, are possible new bodies, followed by the next generation (z7 III, z6 III, z5 II, z50 II) in blue, and finally some remarks. Important for a new body, and often neglected, is the next generation. Any new body has somehow to coexist with those future upgrades of existing body series – without cannibalizing their sales. In a still shrinking market, with high development costs spread over smaller production runs, it won’t be a smart idea having too many bodies, which are not enough differentiated from each other and sit in the same price range.

The Z8 gap

As we can see there’s a large gap between the z7 series and the new flagship. Question is what to put in there? The most logical implementation would be to use the z9 tech and put it into a z6/7 style body and call it z8. A bit like what the D700 was to the D3, about a year later. This would make most sense if the new sensor is 60mp (or more). If it remains at 45-50mp there would be a problem between this z8 and a potential z7 III. Another option is two new sensors from Nikon, which is well possible as the rumors have it that several new cameras were being tested. So maybe the z8 gets this higher resolution sensor, while the z9 (and a future z7 III) get the 46mp version. Works fine for all 3 bodies, different enough specs and prices to coexist.

A second new body for 2021?

This is is more difficult to work out. Previously Nikon mentioned in a interview new dSLR bodies coming. However, in a more recent interview they stated focusing on the mirrorless lineup instead. Add to this the newest CIPA (January 2020) numbers, with dSLR’s loosing more ground in both numbers and value, and Nikon could well do a “DL” here and cancel planned product launches in the dSLR line. Instrumental for a decision would be sales of the already released D780. If it does well, we might see new dSLR’s, like a D860 for example, if not, well… Only Nikon knows those sales numbers, but the other indicators mentioned above are not encouraging.

How about a Dx body?

Next option would be a D500 style mirrorless body (perhaps z90). However, it would sit right where the z5/6/7 are in the lineup, would require technology from the upcoming flagship for speed (AF, EVF, fps) and on top of this the D500 is likely a niche market. Projected sales numbers based on serial numbers of sold D500 cameras, plus APS-C loosing in both numbers and value against FF systems (according to the CIPA report linked above, see lens statistics there) indicate against such a mirrorless D500. Add to this that users of more advanced Dx bodies will demand more Dx lenses, which means more different products to be brought to a now much smaller market – resulting in more headaches for Nikon and everything else but an efficient and streamlined product range.

However, Nikon hinted several times now that there are some more Dx lenses coming, which makes another Dx body likely. New lens patents include a wide angle zoom and the 18-140 Dx zoom already on the lens roadmap. An entry level body (z30) could be a suitable companion to the z50, or a souped up body (z70) between it and the z5.

A z30 could provide an entry point to the Z system, with some of its buyers later on upgrading to another body. Keeping the Dx lens lineup small could be an advantage for those who want to upgrade to Fx, and yes, Nikon has stated several times that the upcoming compact prime lens series are meant for both, Dx and Fx users. Furthermore, a z30 doesn’t required any new technology, everything is already there. The problem with a z30 is more about the price point and the competition. If it has no EVF, it will have a tough stand with the Canon M50 around. If it comes with an EVF, how to differentiate it substantially enough from the z50?
A z70, with IBIS, would be easier to differentiate, but sits in a tight spot between the z50 and a potential $1000 z4 Fx in a few years. Still, there is a gap there, and the problem could be solved by repositioning those two Dx bodies in the future if required. So a pair of Dx bodies are a possibility, be it z30/50 or z50/70. There could even be 3 Dx bodies, z30 (no EVF), z50 (EVF) and z70 (EVF+IBIS), but the question is how much does Nikon want to put into Dx with Fx getting stronger (remember the CIPA report above, where FX lens sales expanded, while Dx contracted).

Of course all of this is guess work, and your guess is as good as mine. However, I’ve tried to put everything into perspective of a complete setup, including future updates of existing models, and without thinking what would be suitable for myself.
My personal next buy could be a z30, or a second hand z50, to replace my Nikon 1 j5 as my go-around body, which is at home in my office bag. Next would be the z7 III, once it gets the extra (speed) boost from the upcoming flagship, but obviously this is years away. Until then I’m happy to add a few more lenses to my setup as my first generation z7 continues to do a great job.

25/02/2021

Nikon Camera Production

All production numbers are based on available information about Nikon serial numbers found here:
www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html
Be aware that these serial numbers are incomplete and therefore do not represent accurate production numbers. Still, certain trends can be shown and it is the only information available – Nikon knows more but they do not publish detailed production numbers.

First shown is production per year of certain cameras. Note that this is not an accurate timeline when it comes to launch dates of particular bodies, but rather intended to show how certain product lines developed since about 2008:

Overall the decline of the camera industry from 2012 onward can be seen in some models, combined with a much faster decline of certain dSLR’s after 2015/2016, mostly in the lower price segment. In particular the D610/D750 FX bodies resisted the overall drop in sales much better than DX, so the launching of the Z6 was a logical move and is reflected in its sales numbers.

Some additional notes:

the massive drop in dSLR sales reflects overall CIPA statistics.
the Z5, Z6 II and Z7 II are not included as there are only very low (too few submissions?) serials available.
I have been very pessimistic about a Z-version of the D500 and the overall low yearly sales, combined with a contracting market, is the reason. It is a niche market. I don’t expect such a body being high on Nikon’s priority list, the more so as it would compete with future updates of the Z6/7 series.

Of course your analysis and conclusion based on these numbers might be different.

Here’s more detailed information, with a better time line. Certain camera bodies were combined to make it a bit easier to view (click to enlarge):

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